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viernes, 16 de diciembre de 2011
Spanish debt auction puts bounce in the dead cat
More John J Hardy, yesterday15 December 2011 Non-Independent Investment Research A strong Spanish debt auction today finally put a bid in the EURUSD after the key pair drooped below 1.30 of late. Meanwhile, the SNB disappoints those looking for a rise in the EURCHF floor.
After three days of bloodletting for risk on the re-acceleration of the EU crisis, the markets are trying to take a breather today, driven perhaps by less catastrophic than feared data and a strong Spanish bond auction. The HSBC flash PMI in China improved, though still came in just below 50, and the European flash PMI’s for December were slightly better than November levels, if still a bit depressed. In other words, expectations may have gotten so bad here – particularly for Europe – that only truly catastrophic data has the power to pile on the pessimism.
While the latest political noise out of Europe continues to strip away the last shreds of confidence that any solution will ever be found that keeps the EU together, many of the sovereign- and bank liquidity indicators bounced in today’s early trade after a scary semi-meltdown yesterday. This and the tightening sovereign debt spreads in general today were driven by a very successful auction of Spanish debt – as Spain managed to sell twice as many bonds as anticipated at its auction today. Some of that demand may be due to the anticipated boost in liquidity from the ECB’s most recent measures , which could allow Spanish and other banks to lock in fat spreads on LTRO and other borrowings versus investment in sovereign debt – assuming that what looks well on paper, ends well in reality.
SNBDespite evidence of a cratering Swiss economy and deflationary inflation readings of late, the SNB today dashed market expectations that a new rise in the EURCHF floor and/or other measures would be announced today and CHF was bid, driving EURCHF back below 1.2300. Still, the language on the SNB’s intent was more than clear, as Hildebrand stated that the SNB was ready to act at any time and that its current strength still presents a strong risk to the Swiss economy. The inflation forecast for 2012 was kept at an outright negative -0.3% and the forecast for 2013 was lowered slightly. The Citigroup economic data surprise index for Switzerland is at an astounding -127, the lowest since early 2009. It is clear the SNB will move again, but it seems to want to keep the market guessing on timing, a tactic that may actually enhance the eventual impact of a move.
Where we stand and looking aheadToday we’re finally finding a bit of stabilization in risk appetite after a couple of rather heady days of declines triggered partially by the petulant reaction to the FOMC meeting not producing any QE3 guidance (looks like a rather thin excuse as there should hardly have been any dramatic expectations heading into that meeting – sometimes, these event risks merely “dam up” market action due to those who would simply like to wait for event risks like this to be out of the way before putting on risk.), but also by the aggravated return of EU worries.
With US bond auctions this week showing a more-than-firm bid for US government paper all the way to the longest end of the curve, it appears the market is raising its macro bet on a deflationary trend, the Bernanke Fed notwithstanding. US 30-year rates below 3.0% again are a very strong expression of caution. Commodities are also beginning to look more than a bit frayed around the edges, as the consensus wisdom of printing-money-means-buy-hard-assets is being sorely tested at the moment. Even crude oil finally managed to suffer a severe correction yesterday for the first time in months. Meanwhile, as one would expect in such circumstances, the USD has broken new ground to the upside in recent days. On the other hand, equities have hardly corrected and an equity market rout would be the final straw for markets/risk appetite here – and in the G10 currencies, could finally serve to administer a more definitive knock-out blow to the Aussie. On that front, it is interesting to note that the US S&P500 crossed and closed below the 50-day moving average again before today’s enthusiastic response to the Spanish debt auction.
Ahead of the US equity market open, risk appetite is getting a further boost from the latest figures out of the US to roll in better than expected, with weekly jobless claims registering the lowest reading since pre-Lehman days and the Empire Manufacturing survey showing a solid gain. Watch for the Philly Fed out shortly. Tomorrow’s US November CPI release will be interesting as we look for a possible end to the rising trend in core prices on year-on-year comparisons. The year-on-year core CPI has marched higher for 12 consecutive months in a row and in Oct. sat at a near 3-year high of 2.1%.
Let’s also watch how EURUSD behaves here around the 1.30 level as we are entering the final trading days of the year. If we manage to avoid a dramatic move in underlying fundamentals and liquidity indicators, we could see a chop-fest for the next couple of weeks. But if the Spanish auction merely proves a distraction that is not indicative of improving confidence in the near term liquidity, then the latest directional move in risk could quickly extend.
Stay careful out there.
Economic Data Highlights China Dec. HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI out at 49.0 vs. 47.7 in Nov. Switzerland Q3 Industrial Production out at -1.4% QoQ and -1.4% YoY vs. -0.9%/0.0% expected, respectively and vs.
After three days of bloodletting for risk on the re-acceleration of the EU crisis, the markets are trying to take a breather today, driven perhaps by less catastrophic than feared data and a strong Spanish bond auction. The HSBC flash PMI in China improved, though still came in just below 50, and the European flash PMI’s for December were slightly better than November levels, if still a bit depressed. In other words, expectations may have gotten so bad here – particularly for Europe – that only truly catastrophic data has the power to pile on the pessimism.
While the latest political noise out of Europe continues to strip away the last shreds of confidence that any solution will ever be found that keeps the EU together, many of the sovereign- and bank liquidity indicators bounced in today’s early trade after a scary semi-meltdown yesterday. This and the tightening sovereign debt spreads in general today were driven by a very successful auction of Spanish debt – as Spain managed to sell twice as many bonds as anticipated at its auction today. Some of that demand may be due to the anticipated boost in liquidity from the ECB’s most recent measures , which could allow Spanish and other banks to lock in fat spreads on LTRO and other borrowings versus investment in sovereign debt – assuming that what looks well on paper, ends well in reality.
SNBDespite evidence of a cratering Swiss economy and deflationary inflation readings of late, the SNB today dashed market expectations that a new rise in the EURCHF floor and/or other measures would be announced today and CHF was bid, driving EURCHF back below 1.2300. Still, the language on the SNB’s intent was more than clear, as Hildebrand stated that the SNB was ready to act at any time and that its current strength still presents a strong risk to the Swiss economy. The inflation forecast for 2012 was kept at an outright negative -0.3% and the forecast for 2013 was lowered slightly. The Citigroup economic data surprise index for Switzerland is at an astounding -127, the lowest since early 2009. It is clear the SNB will move again, but it seems to want to keep the market guessing on timing, a tactic that may actually enhance the eventual impact of a move.
Where we stand and looking aheadToday we’re finally finding a bit of stabilization in risk appetite after a couple of rather heady days of declines triggered partially by the petulant reaction to the FOMC meeting not producing any QE3 guidance (looks like a rather thin excuse as there should hardly have been any dramatic expectations heading into that meeting – sometimes, these event risks merely “dam up” market action due to those who would simply like to wait for event risks like this to be out of the way before putting on risk.), but also by the aggravated return of EU worries.
With US bond auctions this week showing a more-than-firm bid for US government paper all the way to the longest end of the curve, it appears the market is raising its macro bet on a deflationary trend, the Bernanke Fed notwithstanding. US 30-year rates below 3.0% again are a very strong expression of caution. Commodities are also beginning to look more than a bit frayed around the edges, as the consensus wisdom of printing-money-means-buy-hard-assets is being sorely tested at the moment. Even crude oil finally managed to suffer a severe correction yesterday for the first time in months. Meanwhile, as one would expect in such circumstances, the USD has broken new ground to the upside in recent days. On the other hand, equities have hardly corrected and an equity market rout would be the final straw for markets/risk appetite here – and in the G10 currencies, could finally serve to administer a more definitive knock-out blow to the Aussie. On that front, it is interesting to note that the US S&P500 crossed and closed below the 50-day moving average again before today’s enthusiastic response to the Spanish debt auction.
Ahead of the US equity market open, risk appetite is getting a further boost from the latest figures out of the US to roll in better than expected, with weekly jobless claims registering the lowest reading since pre-Lehman days and the Empire Manufacturing survey showing a solid gain. Watch for the Philly Fed out shortly. Tomorrow’s US November CPI release will be interesting as we look for a possible end to the rising trend in core prices on year-on-year comparisons. The year-on-year core CPI has marched higher for 12 consecutive months in a row and in Oct. sat at a near 3-year high of 2.1%.
Let’s also watch how EURUSD behaves here around the 1.30 level as we are entering the final trading days of the year. If we manage to avoid a dramatic move in underlying fundamentals and liquidity indicators, we could see a chop-fest for the next couple of weeks. But if the Spanish auction merely proves a distraction that is not indicative of improving confidence in the near term liquidity, then the latest directional move in risk could quickly extend.
Stay careful out there.
Economic Data Highlights China Dec. HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI out at 49.0 vs. 47.7 in Nov. Switzerland Q3 Industrial Production out at -1.4% QoQ and -1.4% YoY vs. -0.9%/0.0% expected, respectively and vs.
David Cameron's stance in Brussels: smart or stubborn?
More Nick Beecroft, 12 hours ago16 December 2011 Non-Independent Investment Research David Cameron’s refusal to vote for EU Treaty changes at last week’s summit has since been the subject of many column-metres of comment in the press - well, here’s my input.
He had little choice
The first point to understand is that Cameron probably had little choice from a political perspective-had he rolled over and signed up for what is essentially the start of a United States of Europe, then it is highly possible that he would have faced a rebellion of such magnitude from his own MP’s that it might well have culminated in a refendum on the UK’s continued EU membership, which stood every chance of leading to the UK’s withdrawal. This would have been a disaster for Britain. It is also definitely the case that the majority of British voters would have supported Cameron’s stance; why on earth would the man in the street want to jump aboard a bus which seems to be heading for a very dangerous stretch of road?
The big picture
From an economic perspective, the important consideration is not so much the narrow point of freedom for the City of London’s financial empires from excessive regulation and taxation, it is the big picture that the UK currently enjoys safe-haven status, as a major, politically stable economy, which has vigorously embraced fiscal probity and which has the marvellous luxury of a flexible exchange rate to act as a shock absorber for economic troubles; automatically preserving her international competitive position, if necessary. Why would she ever voluntarily give up either of these advantages? Much better to keep a dignified distance.
Commercial sense will prevail
I also find it difficult to imagine the Prime Minister’s stance will have a long-term negative effect for British trade; we live in a global market, where the quality of goods or services and their relative prices determine the success or failure of trading businesses - not votes around a table in Brussels. Once the dust has settled, Britain's continued membership of the EU will in all probability not be in question, as the loss of Europe's third-largest economy would be as large a blow for the EU as the economic consequences would be for Britain-so commercial sense will prevail.
This was a high stakes gamble, but may yet turn out to be a very savvy political and economic move. Tags: EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP, GBPJPY, Balance of Trade, Gross Domestic Product, Gross National Debt 93 Views 1 Like! 0 Comments 0 Follow In order to like something, you need to be a member.
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He had little choice
The first point to understand is that Cameron probably had little choice from a political perspective-had he rolled over and signed up for what is essentially the start of a United States of Europe, then it is highly possible that he would have faced a rebellion of such magnitude from his own MP’s that it might well have culminated in a refendum on the UK’s continued EU membership, which stood every chance of leading to the UK’s withdrawal. This would have been a disaster for Britain. It is also definitely the case that the majority of British voters would have supported Cameron’s stance; why on earth would the man in the street want to jump aboard a bus which seems to be heading for a very dangerous stretch of road?
The big picture
From an economic perspective, the important consideration is not so much the narrow point of freedom for the City of London’s financial empires from excessive regulation and taxation, it is the big picture that the UK currently enjoys safe-haven status, as a major, politically stable economy, which has vigorously embraced fiscal probity and which has the marvellous luxury of a flexible exchange rate to act as a shock absorber for economic troubles; automatically preserving her international competitive position, if necessary. Why would she ever voluntarily give up either of these advantages? Much better to keep a dignified distance.
Commercial sense will prevail
I also find it difficult to imagine the Prime Minister’s stance will have a long-term negative effect for British trade; we live in a global market, where the quality of goods or services and their relative prices determine the success or failure of trading businesses - not votes around a table in Brussels. Once the dust has settled, Britain's continued membership of the EU will in all probability not be in question, as the loss of Europe's third-largest economy would be as large a blow for the EU as the economic consequences would be for Britain-so commercial sense will prevail.
This was a high stakes gamble, but may yet turn out to be a very savvy political and economic move. Tags: EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP, GBPJPY, Balance of Trade, Gross Domestic Product, Gross National Debt 93 Views 1 Like! 0 Comments 0 Follow In order to like something, you need to be a member.
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Outrageous Prediction: Sweden and Norway become new Switzerland
More Steen Jakobsen, 10 hours ago16 December 2011 Non-Independent Investment Research Sweden and Norway are at risk of replacing Switzerland as the new safe havens – “risk” because, as we saw with Switzerland, becoming a safe haven in a world of devaluing central banks presents a number of risks to a country’s economy. The capital markets of both countries are far smaller than Switzerland, (the combined FX volume in Sweden and Norway being a mere fraction of Switzerland’s), but the Swiss are aggressively devaluing their currency and money managers are looking for new safe havens for capital. At the same time, Germany and its balance sheet are embroiled in the EU debt debacle and the classic safe haven appeal of 10-year Bunds is fading fast. Sweden and Norway sport excellent current account fundamentals, prudent social policies and skilled and flexible labour forces. Flows into the two countries’ government bonds on safe haven appeal becomes popular enough to drive 10-year rates there to more than 100 basis points below the classic safe haven German Bunds.
About Outrageous Predictions
In its Outrageous Predictions, Saxo Bank focuses on events that are unlikely to happen, but at the same time are far more likely than the market appreciates. The predictions are not meant as forecasts, but it is important for investors to consider events with under-recognised probabilities. Should any of them come to pass, they would have a significant impact on the markets. Read all of Saxo Bank's Outrageous Predictions for 2012 here. Downlaod a PDF document containing the Outrageous Predictions here. View a compilation of short videos about them here.
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About Outrageous Predictions
In its Outrageous Predictions, Saxo Bank focuses on events that are unlikely to happen, but at the same time are far more likely than the market appreciates. The predictions are not meant as forecasts, but it is important for investors to consider events with under-recognised probabilities. Should any of them come to pass, they would have a significant impact on the markets. Read all of Saxo Bank's Outrageous Predictions for 2012 here. Downlaod a PDF document containing the Outrageous Predictions here. View a compilation of short videos about them here.
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Outrageous Prediction: Australia goes into recession
More Mads Koefoed, 10 hours ago16 December 2011 Non-Independent Investment Research The Chinese locomotive has been losing steam throughout 2011 as investment and real estate led growth becomes harder and harder to come by due to diminishing marginal returns. The effects of the slowing of the up-and-coming Asian giant ripple through Asia Pacific and push other countries into recession. If there ever was a country dependent on the well-being of China it is Australia with its heavy dependence on mining and natural resources. And as China’s demand for these goods weakens Australia is pushed into a recession, which is then exacerbated as the housing sector finally experiences its long overdue crash – a half decade after the rest of the developed world.
About Outrageous Predictions
In its Outrageous Predictions, Saxo Bank focuses on events that are unlikely to happen, but at the same time are far more likely than the market appreciates. The predictions are not meant as forecasts, but it is important for investors to consider events with under-recognised probabilities. Should any of them come to pass, they would have a significant impact on the markets. Read all of Saxo Bank's Outrageous Predictions for 2012 here. Downlaod a PDF document containing the Outrageous Predictions here. View a compilation of short videos about them here.
Tags: macro, Gross Domestic Product 41 Views 0 Like! 0 Comments 0 Follow In order to like something, you need to be a member.
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About Outrageous Predictions
In its Outrageous Predictions, Saxo Bank focuses on events that are unlikely to happen, but at the same time are far more likely than the market appreciates. The predictions are not meant as forecasts, but it is important for investors to consider events with under-recognised probabilities. Should any of them come to pass, they would have a significant impact on the markets. Read all of Saxo Bank's Outrageous Predictions for 2012 here. Downlaod a PDF document containing the Outrageous Predictions here. View a compilation of short videos about them here.
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Outrageous Prediction: An unannounced candidate takes White House
More John J Hardy, 9 hours ago16 December 2011 Non-Independent Investment Research In 1992, a savvy, yet highly erratic Texas billionaire named Ross Perot managed to take advantage of a recessionary economy and popular disgust with US politics and reap 18.9 percent of the popular vote. Step forward to 2008, and Obama promises “real change” from eight years of Republican rule as the economy is nose-diving. Now, three years of Obama has brought too little change and only additional widespread disillusionment with the entire US political system. Going into the election in 2012, the incumbent Democrats are in ideological disarray and will get the blame for continued economic malaise and the favour-the-rich Republicans will never win the popular vote with the US rich/poor gap at a record width and social tension rising. In short, conditions for a third party candidate have never been riper. Someone smart enough to sense this and with a strong programme for real change throws his hat in the ring early in 2012 and snatches the presidency in November in one of the most pivotal elections in US history, taking 38 percent of the popular vote. A new political order is born.
About Outrageous Predictions
In its Outrageous Predictions, Saxo Bank focuses on events that are unlikely to happen, but at the same time are far more likely than the market appreciates. The predictions are not meant as forecasts, but it is important for investors to consider events with under-recognised probabilities. Should any of them come to pass, they would have a significant impact on the markets. Read all of Saxo Bank's Outrageous Predictions for 2012 here. Downlaod a PDF document containing the Outrageous Predictions here. View a compilation of short videos about them here.
Tags: forex, EURUSD, macro 52 Views 0 Like! 0 Comments 0 Follow In order to like something, you need to be a member.
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About Outrageous Predictions
In its Outrageous Predictions, Saxo Bank focuses on events that are unlikely to happen, but at the same time are far more likely than the market appreciates. The predictions are not meant as forecasts, but it is important for investors to consider events with under-recognised probabilities. Should any of them come to pass, they would have a significant impact on the markets. Read all of Saxo Bank's Outrageous Predictions for 2012 here. Downlaod a PDF document containing the Outrageous Predictions here. View a compilation of short videos about them here.
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US CPI inflation resilient
More Mads Koefoed, 9 hours ago16 December 2011 Non-Independent Investment Research After yesterday's massive bout of economic data, which surprised to the upside in almost every report, we ease into the weekend with US CPI the only major release. That is no guarantee, however, that we will not get another rollercoaster day as rumours are already swirling that Standard & Poor's could downgrade EU sovereigns later today.
Position squaring is the name of the game
More Ken Veksler, 9 hours ago16 December 2011 T’was the week before Christmas and markets remain nervous. Not a major shock to the system given the type of year it has been, not to mention the last few months. Positioning squaring remains the name of the game and especially today ahead of what will no doubt be the last real (if you can even call it that) trading week of 2011.
US bourses closed in the black for the time this week overnight and gave the Asian indices a lead also. Consolidation rather than substantiated growth or positive sentiment can be directly attributed to the move, and likewise in the commodity complex. This gave the higher beta crosses a small boost as the DXY also sought consolidation.
My advice is not to confuse last night with everyone’s wish list item if a Christmas rally. The boat has well and truly sailed, assuming it ever even truly hit the water. The day holds little if anything of real value by way of data releases and as mentioned above position squaring in very thin markets will lead to flows in both directions (erratic as they may prove to be).
Overnight a story of the major Australian banks being issued with a one-week deadline to stress test their essentially European exposure under a “the world explodes” worst case scenario failed to dampen enthusiasm for AUD purchases, but again here it’s important to underline that this move was more a function of USD consolidation rather than inherent AUD strength.
Levels on the day aren’t dissimilar to those of yesterday, in that the EURUSD still has to overcome the 1.3050 level, with stops just above that which could see us run briefly into around the 1.3130 resistance, which will again provide a chance for rally faders to enter the market. While the downside remains as open as ever.
The AUDUSD also looks for 1.0030/50 for ultimate resistance before continuing its road lower with 0.9750 still firmly in sight.
The Cable still hangs in there and currently trades in and around the 1.5550 pivot level established over the last few weeks of price action. This cross looks equally fragile, but is less likely to drop or even move at all violently for that matter.
And finally USDCAD may well test and take a deep breath back towards the 1.0250 breakout level before reloading for another run back towards that 1.0470/0500 level.
US CPI might be the only thing that gives the market a small shudder, but in truth also quite unlikely.
As always on a Friday and never more so than now, I suggest you don’t ruin your weekend with a cheap punt.Helmets as always, firmly attached.(Twitter
US bourses closed in the black for the time this week overnight and gave the Asian indices a lead also. Consolidation rather than substantiated growth or positive sentiment can be directly attributed to the move, and likewise in the commodity complex. This gave the higher beta crosses a small boost as the DXY also sought consolidation.
My advice is not to confuse last night with everyone’s wish list item if a Christmas rally. The boat has well and truly sailed, assuming it ever even truly hit the water. The day holds little if anything of real value by way of data releases and as mentioned above position squaring in very thin markets will lead to flows in both directions (erratic as they may prove to be).
Overnight a story of the major Australian banks being issued with a one-week deadline to stress test their essentially European exposure under a “the world explodes” worst case scenario failed to dampen enthusiasm for AUD purchases, but again here it’s important to underline that this move was more a function of USD consolidation rather than inherent AUD strength.
Levels on the day aren’t dissimilar to those of yesterday, in that the EURUSD still has to overcome the 1.3050 level, with stops just above that which could see us run briefly into around the 1.3130 resistance, which will again provide a chance for rally faders to enter the market. While the downside remains as open as ever.
The AUDUSD also looks for 1.0030/50 for ultimate resistance before continuing its road lower with 0.9750 still firmly in sight.
The Cable still hangs in there and currently trades in and around the 1.5550 pivot level established over the last few weeks of price action. This cross looks equally fragile, but is less likely to drop or even move at all violently for that matter.
And finally USDCAD may well test and take a deep breath back towards the 1.0250 breakout level before reloading for another run back towards that 1.0470/0500 level.
US CPI might be the only thing that gives the market a small shudder, but in truth also quite unlikely.
As always on a Friday and never more so than now, I suggest you don’t ruin your weekend with a cheap punt.Helmets as always, firmly attached.(Twitter
Financial markets and natural selection?
More Neil Staines, 9 hours ago16 December 2011
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“Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge”
– Charles Darwin
Equity markets are looking a touch more resilient this morning as Asian indices followed New York higher and as a result broader risk correlated assets (such as Gold, AUD, Italian bonds,…) have had a brief bounce. In part this is driven by a certain amount of year-end apathy as momentum fades and short-term positions are kept, by definition, short term and squared out.
US, EU growth differential
The current ‘risk’ dynamic is worthy of a mention at this point, particularly in light of the US macroeconomic backdrop. Yesterday saw further evidence of the improvement in the US data as weekly (new) jobless claims fell to their lowest level in three and a half years at 366k. In addition to this a survey of New York manufacturing activity rose sharply to its highest level since May (a performance mirrored by a comparable Philadelphia index). This improvement in economic activity ‘should’ be positive for equities, particularly in light of the Federal Reserve's commitment to keep rates at effectively zero for another 18 months at least, however, just as expectations for the growth trajectory of the US (at least in the near term) are rising, forecasts for the Eurozone and conditions in bank liquidity conditions are deteriorating. Whilst this is the case, corporates in the US (and similarly in the UK) will not be motivated to spend their very significant cash piles on investments for the future. Likewise investors may well be forego equities when the risk of a negative event emanating from the Eurozone remains high.
Dissent from the East
The Eurozone’s planned treaty change came under further pressure from the peripheral Eastern European states yesterday as the Czech Republic and Hungary suggested that they would not be party to a tighter European Agreement if it compromises their fiscal independence. Meanwhile the eerie silence surrounding the detail of the proposed treaty change continues, the European Central Bank continue to purchase Italian and (to a lesser degree of late Spanish) debt in the secondary market and the ECB’s vast liquidity measures have singularly failed to prevent the region's banks from simply placing any spare cash on deposit at the ECB instead of putting the money to work in the real economy. This morning I have heard the ECB’s liquidity measures in the Eurozone described as equivalent to turning the taps on full blast to fill up a bath with a hole in it – rather than fixing the hole!
The broad news developments have also been broadly more supportive of the USD over the EUR overnight with news from the US that congressional leaders have reached an agreement to avoid government shutdown as leaders from both parties signed up to a USD1 trillion spending bill to fund governments for the first nine months of 2012. Meanwhile in Europe, the FT reports that the European Financial Stability Facility draft prospectus will contain warnings regarding a Eurozone break-up (not likely to instil confidence!)
Wise men?
Confidence will continue to be the dominant factor in financial markets as we move towards the final (full) week of the year, in particular the confidence vote of Mario Monti’s EUR30 billion emergency budget in the Italian parliament today will likely raise a few eyebrows but is unlikely to come up against any significant opposition given the severity of the task at hand and the de-politicisation of the budgetary responsibilities. Whilst I must admit I have not been following the frankincense and myrrh prices too closely of late, I would suggest that the gold price will be a very strong barometer of position unwinding and broad risk sentiment in the last few days of 2011 – confounding the historic correlations however I feel that any periods of fear and concern will see gold lower (on position unwinding) and not as long term correlation would suggest higher (on a safe haven bid).
“Power without a nations confidence is nothing” – Catherine II
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The Euro-bounce continues – for how long?
More John J Hardy, 5 hours ago16 December 2011 Non-Independent Investment Research Government debt yields plunged across Europe again today, helping to pull EURUSD back well back above 1.30 again, but for how long?. Meanwhile, core US CPI data pushes to a new 3-year high.
The after-effects of yesterday’s strong Spanish debt auction are seeing EU sovereign spreads tightening sharply again today, though to varying degrees. At the long end of the curve, the yield on Spanish 10-year debt as of this writing at close to a two-month low just above 5.00% (some 33 bps lower) while Italy’s 10-year yields have only come in 20 bps and are still a rather lofty 6.37%. Elsewhere, Belgian and Austrian 10-year yields were back toward two-month lows as well. At the shorter end of the curve, the moves were even more pronounced, and aBloomberg article helps describe the likely dynamic here – sovereign spreads tightening as banks snap up sovereign debt at auctions in order to use it as collateral for the ECB 3-year LTRO’s next week – a move that will allow them to lock in rather fat, risk free spreads for a time. It appears for the moment that the ECB is enjoying the last laugh as its Dec 8 announcements are bearing fruit for now in calming debt fears. The question will be how well confidence is maintained on the other side of the 3-year LTRO set for next week – Tuesday for the “call for bids” and Wednesday sees the ECB announcing the allotment .. Another sign that all is not milk and honey is the yield on German 2-year debt, which has dropped to a record low sub 0.25% level today. On the other hand, Euro basis swaps leaped significantly higher today to -119.
Sweden - safe haven after all?Sweden’s housing prices eased back higher according to the November data, but a market top-out and beginning of a down-trend appear rather clearly defined now with this second data point in a row below the 1.9M level, and the heady price gains of the last many years easily qualify as a bubble. It will be interesting to see in 2012 how well the Swedish krona performs relative to its past behavior, which has most often been very pro-cyclical (the 1000-day correlation of EURSEK with the US S&P500 is -0.87, for example). Further strain would be added from banking system difficulties in the event that the housing bubble goes into an ugly unwinding in the New Year. At the same time, the Swedish economy’s open-ness and export strength and low sovereign debt load make it look rather tempting as a relative safe haven when looking at the other basket cases around Europe, including the Euro Zone countries, the twin-deficit laden UK, and the bent-on-devaluation Switzerland. For more on the idea of the krona as a potential safe haven, please have a look at one of our Outrageous Predictions of the New Year – the idea that Swedenand Norway become the new Switzerland.
Chart: EURSEKEURSEK has been powering lower and is now perched close to the psychologically significant 9.00 level. Could the pair be set for a try lower toward 8.90 and even 8.75 despite the direction in risk appetite, or will negative developments in Europe re-establish their gravity on the krona as they normally have in the past. The technical argument and marked new behavior of late would argue that the side of least resistance remains lower, particularly if 9.00 is taken out soon.
The after-effects of yesterday’s strong Spanish debt auction are seeing EU sovereign spreads tightening sharply again today, though to varying degrees. At the long end of the curve, the yield on Spanish 10-year debt as of this writing at close to a two-month low just above 5.00% (some 33 bps lower) while Italy’s 10-year yields have only come in 20 bps and are still a rather lofty 6.37%. Elsewhere, Belgian and Austrian 10-year yields were back toward two-month lows as well. At the shorter end of the curve, the moves were even more pronounced, and aBloomberg article helps describe the likely dynamic here – sovereign spreads tightening as banks snap up sovereign debt at auctions in order to use it as collateral for the ECB 3-year LTRO’s next week – a move that will allow them to lock in rather fat, risk free spreads for a time. It appears for the moment that the ECB is enjoying the last laugh as its Dec 8 announcements are bearing fruit for now in calming debt fears. The question will be how well confidence is maintained on the other side of the 3-year LTRO set for next week – Tuesday for the “call for bids” and Wednesday sees the ECB announcing the allotment .. Another sign that all is not milk and honey is the yield on German 2-year debt, which has dropped to a record low sub 0.25% level today. On the other hand, Euro basis swaps leaped significantly higher today to -119.
Sweden - safe haven after all?Sweden’s housing prices eased back higher according to the November data, but a market top-out and beginning of a down-trend appear rather clearly defined now with this second data point in a row below the 1.9M level, and the heady price gains of the last many years easily qualify as a bubble. It will be interesting to see in 2012 how well the Swedish krona performs relative to its past behavior, which has most often been very pro-cyclical (the 1000-day correlation of EURSEK with the US S&P500 is -0.87, for example). Further strain would be added from banking system difficulties in the event that the housing bubble goes into an ugly unwinding in the New Year. At the same time, the Swedish economy’s open-ness and export strength and low sovereign debt load make it look rather tempting as a relative safe haven when looking at the other basket cases around Europe, including the Euro Zone countries, the twin-deficit laden UK, and the bent-on-devaluation Switzerland. For more on the idea of the krona as a potential safe haven, please have a look at one of our Outrageous Predictions of the New Year – the idea that Swedenand Norway become the new Switzerland.
Chart: EURSEKEURSEK has been powering lower and is now perched close to the psychologically significant 9.00 level. Could the pair be set for a try lower toward 8.90 and even 8.75 despite the direction in risk appetite, or will negative developments in Europe re-establish their gravity on the krona as they normally have in the past. The technical argument and marked new behavior of late would argue that the side of least resistance remains lower, particularly if 9.00 is taken out soon.
2012 - the perfect storm
More Steen Jakobsen, about 1 hour ago16 December 2011 Non-Independent Investment Research
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Generating this year’s Outrageous Predictions has been even more of a pleasure than usual, as it seems that never before have there been so many path uncertainties for the future, so we have had an infinite variety of scenarios to draw upon. As usual, we try to keep at least a measure of consistency across the predictions by using a unifying theme. For this year, we settled on the theme for 2012: The Perfect Storm.
Saxo Bank’s yearly Outrageous Predictions report has always been one of our more popular publications, and understandably so, as it frees us and our readers from the constraints of the high probability events in the middle of the supposed bell curve of possibilities. But there are a few key points I need to underline about this publication:
The first is that we always focus on “fat tail” predictions, i.e. events that are unlikely to happen, but are perhaps far more likely than the market appreciates. Saxo Bank first launched this publication 10 years ago as an exercise in looking at events which, should they happen, would change the outlook and performance of markets. This was before the concept of Black Swans was popularised. Our publication was rather inspired by option theory and looking at the tail-risk – an event which based on odds or logic has a very small chance of happening, but somehow still happens far more often than any model is able to predict.
Consider volatility during the 2008 Financial Crisis which no model could even imagine. Or think about a natural disaster like the earthquake/tsunami that hit Fukushima. Disaster planning could supposedly handle a very substantial earthquake and Fukushima was supposedly located in a low risk zone. But instead, Japan suffered an earthquake of severity which seemed impossible in Japan’s geology, and the resultant tsunami wiped out back-up power. The unimaginable happened once again.
Saxo Bank’s yearly Outrageous Predictions are not intended as real predictions and certainly not as “forecasts” in any way. Rather, the Outrageous Predictions are 10 important events with under-recognised probabilities in our view. Should any of them come to pass, they would change the way we need to analyse, trade and report the markets.
It is also important to note that our Outrageous Predictions nearly always have a negative bias, which is in fact a natural antidote to how the market normally operates. Human beings have a tendency to think positively, which is a natural part of our motivation to get up and go to work every day and a vital part of our survival instinct. Day in and day out we think about building a better future based on a continuation of the present. This is good for morale but does a poor job of preparing us for reality.
In that light, please do not let our Outrageous Predictions get you down. They have been prepared in the spirit of encouraging you to think outside the box and prepare for world-altering events. Thinking outside the box is rarely a comfortable exercise, but neither is dealing with an unpleasant surprise for which one has failed to prepare in any meaningful way.
Should one, two or three of our Outrageous Predictions come to pass, it would make 2012 a year of
tremendous change. This may not necessarily be a negative thing either - and given the structure and
uncertainties in the marketplace here at the end of 2011, we would suggest that even if none of our
predictions come to pass, equally important and totally unanticipated events will. Sometimes we need to get to a new starting point before we can gain the right perspective. We hope 2012 will be the year where we start on the long march towards re-establishing jobs, growth and confidence.
Maybe, just maybe, our Outrageous Predictions can at least lead to a discussion on how we can prevent some of them from happening. We would like nothing more than to be proven wrong on negative views, but only if they are replaced with something better than the current central bank and government-manipulated paradigm.
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Economia de crisis en una ciudad andaluza: Jaen, 1677-1715 (Spanish Edition)
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Según la Junta de Andalucía, los indicadores al cierre del ejercicio 2010 muestran la cosolidación de las primeras selañes de recuperación económica. Así lo ha confirmado el Consejero de Economía, Innovación y Ciencia quién ha destacoel papel de las exportaciones y nuevas tecnologías en la economía cordobesa.
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Essentials of Life-Span Development
Why are you assigning or considering a brief Human Development text? Is it because your students do not complete the reading in a comprehensive text? Do you run out of time trying to cover the entire lifespan over the course of a few months? Do your students struggle to retain the sheer volume of information in the course? Instructors from across the country have clamored for a streamlined text that captures the core concepts of life-span development.
Santrock Essentials 2e was developed to help meet the ever-changing needs of students in the lifespan course. Knowing that students do not often read the text and have poor study skills, Santrock Essentials introduces an adaptive diagnostic that helps students know what they know and what they don’t know to become more efficient and effective learners. Organized in a concise format, Santrock Essentials helps students relate to the material and study more efficiently by driving them to the applicable reading content in a format that is more student-friendly.
Based on hallmark features- its expert contributors, updated research and focus on applications, Santrock provides the most dependable and current presentation of lifespan development available, and he does so in a briefer format and with our adaptive diagnostic helping to ensure that your students will read and appreciate the material while seeing the applications to their everyday life. In Santrock, our new Milestones video and assessment program helps bring the course material to life, so your students can witness development as it unfolds.
Essentials of Lifespan Development 2e, was carefully designed and constructed to deliver these core concepts along with a strong applications focus reflecting the broad range of interests and backgrounds of students taking this course. And as always with John Santrock’s texts, the latest research in the field is incorporated throughout.
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The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries are Failing and What Can Be Done About It
In the universally acclaimed and award-winning The Bottom Billion, Paul Collier reveals that fifty failed states–home to the poorest one billion people on Earth–pose the central challenge of the developing world in the twenty-first century. The book shines much-needed light on this group of small nations, largely unnoticed by the industrialized West, that are dropping further and further behind the majority of the world’s people, often falling into an absolute decline in living standards. A struggle rages within each of these nations between reformers and corrupt leaders–and the corrupt are winning. Collier analyzes the causes of failure, pointing to a set of traps that ensnare these countries, including civil war, a dependence on the extraction and export of natural resources, and bad governance. Standard solutions do not work, he writes; aid is often ineffective, and globalization can actually make matters worse, driving development to more stable nations. What the bottom billion need, Collier argues, is a bold new plan supported by the Group of Eight industrialized nations. If failed states are ever to be helped, the G8 will have to adopt preferential trade policies, new laws against corruption, new international charters, and even conduct carefully calibrated military interventions. Collier has spent a lifetime working to end global poverty. In The Bottom Billion, he offers real hope for solving one of the great humanitarian crises facing the world today.
“Terrifically readable.”
–Time.com
“Set to become a classic. Crammed with statistical nuggets and common sense, his book should be compulsory reading.”
–The Economist
“If Sachs seems too saintly and Easterly too cynical, then Collier is the authentic old Africa hand: he knows the terrain and has a keen ear…. If you’ve ever found yourself on one side or the other of those arguments–and who hasn’t?–then you simply must read this book.”
–Niall Ferguson, The New York Times Book Review
“Rich in both analysis and recommendations…. Read this book. You will learn much you do not know. It will also change the way you look at the tragedy of persistent poverty in a world of plenty.”
–Financial Times
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The 2011-2016 Outlook for Airport Car Rentals in India
This econometric study covers the latent demand outlook for airport car rentals across the states, union territories and cities of India. Latent demand (in millions of U.S. dollars), or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) estimates are given across over 5,100 cities in India. For each city in question, the percent share the city is of it’s state or union territory and of India as a whole is reported. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a city vis-a-vis others. This statistical approach can prove very useful to distribution and/or sales force strategies. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each state or union territory and city, latent demand estimates are created for airport car rentals. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved.
This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or consistent manner in virtually all of the cities in India). This study gives, however, my estimates for the latent demand, or the P.I.E., for airport car rentals in India. It also shows how the P.I.E. is divided and concentrated across the cities and regional markets of India. For each state or union territory, I also show my estimates of how the P.I.E. grows over time. In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on strategic planning at graduate schools of business.
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La prensa economica y financiera, 1875-1940: Fuentes hemerograficas para la historia de la economia y la hacienda en Espana (Monografia) (Spanish Edition)
Posted on 16-12-2011Etiquetas: 18751940, Economía, Economica, Edition, Espana, Financiera, Fuentes, Hacienda, hemerograficas, historia, Monografia, para, prensa, Spanish 0
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Diccionario de Economia y Administracion (Spanish Edition)
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Los ciudadanos españoles estamos hartos de la crispación a la que nos someten día a día los medios de comunicación y la élite de este país. Todos sufrimos la crisis pero lo que no necesitamos es que nos asfixien con noticias negativas en los telediarios y en los programas debate porque crean malestar, terror para invertir, acobardan a los parados para superar su situación y provocan un pavor que paraliza a la sociedad. El mundo empresarial está estancado ya la expectativa de lo que pasará y todo apunta a un plan muy bien orquestado de aplicación del miedo para ablandar a la sociedad. Lo que los economistas llaman la terapia del choque económico. Primero se genera la intranquilidad, el caos, el desastre, el miedo, y luego todo eso es utilizado como excusa para terminar la tarea concentrando la riqueza en pocas manos. Lo que la ciudadanía reclama son soluciones, buscar facilidades en vez de ponerles continuas trabas. El diccionario de la real academia española define la palabra crisis como Un momento decisivo para un negocio, o una sociedad. La crisis social no es algo genuinamente nuevo porque siempre ha existido en alguna área de la sociedad: las dos guerras mundiales, el comunismo, el anarquismo, la monopolización de la industria, el déficit educativo, el encarecimiento de los productos de primera necesidad, el desempleo, las enfermedades, las recesiones, la devaluación monetaria, sin embargo para muchos hombres y mujeres que han decidido expulsar la crisis, lo han hecho …
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jueves, 15 de diciembre de 2011
- #GoldenGlobes US: Initial Jobless Claims decline to 366K on Dec 9 EKF0BmEd
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US Industrial Production, PPI head 'busiest day of the year'
More Mads Koefoed, 5 hours ago15 December 2011 Non-Independent Investment Research What has to be a contender for 'busiest day of the year' was kicked off in Asia overnight with a worse than expected Tankan survey from Japan balanced by improvement in the HSBC PMI Manufacturing for China. We carry on in the European session with PMIs en masse, Eurozone CPI and a Swiss National Bank rate announcement before the US offers a whole palette of data.
FX Markets: De-leveraging, Deflation, Deterioration, Deceased?
More Neil Staines, 3 hours ago15 December 2011
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Higgs Boson and the EU treaty change detail… Both exist in theory!
The markets continue to be under-impressed with the Eurozone and its attempt at a plan. In fact the ‘risk-off’ bias of markets has seen equities, Eurozone peripheral bonds, and risk positive currencies such as the EUR and AUD begin to sell off at an increasing rate. This is partly driven by the declining liquidity as we move closer to the end of what, for many participants, has been a year to forget. Perhaps the most significant development over recent trading sessions however has been the move in Gold. Recent position squaring (this is likely a result of the fact that for some funds a long gold position will have been one of few winning trades on the year) driven perhaps by falling equities and risk assets in general has taken the shiny metal down in the region of $100 in 24 hours, confounding correlations and short-term market participants.
Deleveraging and position exiting will continue to be a theme for ‘risk takers’ for the rest of the year and as liquidity begins to decline further markets are exposed to areas where there is a concentration of positioning. In this regard Gold continues to be vulnerable. The USD, despite the sizeable issues of the US will likely continue to benefit from the current positional unwinding and deleveraging in the short term, but GBP should continue to outperform the EUR. Perhaps another area to be concerned about as liquidity thins is EURCHF – and the critical 1.2000 level!
Averting deflation
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) left the ‘currency limit’ at 1.2000 per EUR at its monetary policy meeting this morning and kept the target for 3 month CHF libor at 0.00 percent as it battles with increasing deflationary pressure. The statement suggested that it is “ready to take further measures if needed” and it still seems likely that at some point next year (Q2 is the most likely timing in my mind, if the EU treaty change has been formalised and agreed – thus removing some of the safe haven pressure on the CHF to appreciate), provided there is not a marked turnaround in global price pressures, the SNB will raise the ‘peg’ and take EURCHF back above 1.3000.
For the moment, however, with the SNB seemingly less worried about the negative consumer price index over the past two months, and the comment from SNB Head Hildebrand that he “does not see a sustained drop in the price level”, suggest no great urgency from the SNB to raise the ‘peg’, yet at least.
No relief in 2012
ECB bond purchases over the past twelve weeks have been broadly in line with the borrowing needs of Italy and Spain (its primary targets for secondary market bond buying). In order for this relationship to be maintained (and in order for the ECB to ‘maintain the effective transmission mechanism for monetary policy’) the ECB will likely have to step up its bond purchases in Q1 2012 as the borrowing schedule for both Italy and Spain steps up significantly – perhaps just as the uncertainty is at its peak.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said yesterday that the “EU summit result cannot be overstated”. The issue that the market continues to battle with is the fact the details of the agreements under the treaty (which are as yet not clear enough for Ireland to see if agreement requires a referendum) means perhaps the comment should have read ‘EU summit result cannot be stated’. She went on to suggest that the EU steps are to be drafted by March and only then can the national leaders go to their parliaments (or to the nation) for ratification.
The EU17 may find the answers to their respective crises in the long run, however as J M Keynes famously said “in the long run we are all dead”.
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miércoles, 14 de diciembre de 2011
- Angela Rippon #quant Introducing the Quantifiable Edges Catapult Exit Designer QF5QwyCL #forex #trading
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FOMC might be a non-event, even if it is Bernanke’s birthday
More John J Hardy, yesterday13 December 2011 Non-Independent Investment Research The FOMC may come and go without much fuss, but the voting composition will change drastically after today’s meeting. This is an odd market – lots of fear without very many out there expressing it.
Today saw relatively tight range trading after yesterday’s big swings, as the market is either awaiting the outcome of tonight’s FOMC meeting or simply biding its time for any other number of catalysts. US Retail Sales figures were rather downbeat and one of the more notable disappointments after a long string of very strong data.
FOMC PreviewWe’ve got a one-day FOMC meeting set for today, with a new monetary policy statement on the way at 19:15 GMT. Considering that this is a short meeting with no Bernanke press conference and that it will be the last meeting with the three hawkish regional Fed presidents as voters, it’s easy to believe that any major policy hints will await a likely less rowdy bunch of replacements from the regions. Then again, the other of the four voters who is about to become a non-voter, Evans of the Chicago Fed, recently actually dissented on the dovish side, outlining a particularly aggressive monetary forcing in the economy aimed at boosting unemployment through NGDP targeting – creating nominal growth regardless of inflationary consequences through monetary forcing.. It brought to my mind the image of force feeding geese to grow their livers for pate. We’ve yet to see other Fed members expressing enthusiasm for this “nuclear option”, but one wonders what a steep drop in core CPI readings early next year and an unemployment rate bounce back above 9.0% might do for Fed sentiment, should that come to pass. On that note, watch out for this Friday’s CPI release as the month-on-month core numbers have been creeping lower over the last two months, even if the year-on-year levels are near 3-year highs.
Of the four new voters, only one is known to be a hawk, and even if he – Lacker of the Richmond Fed – is a rather outspoken hawk, one wonders what will stop the doves in the New Year. The majority, at least, all seem pliable to the academic absolutism of the Mr. Bernanke and the belief that the Fed can always engineer a rescue with additional helicopter drops of cash/liquidity. But there are a number of forces that could stand in the way of further action from the Fed in the New Year: economic (continued stronger than expected growth and in particular improvement in the labour market or higher than expected inflation), political (stronger signs that the Fed will face resistance from Congress and/or the president. This has boiled up at times, but there’s not enough of a consensus, though it bears watching whether a presidential candidate from the Republican side, or especially from a third party picks up the blame-the-Fed rhetoric. It’s certainly low-hanging fruit for a protest/occupy movement) and financial (Fed unable to keep order across the entire yield curve, creating uncomfortably high yields out at the longer end of the curve. No signs of this at all so far, but worth watching for a bottom in the 30-year bond cycle of ever lower yields.)
Odds and endsThe Germany ZEW survey was a bit better than expected, though still extremely low by historic standards (only late 2008 and 1992 saw similar lows). The current situation component also declined to a 17-month low.
The UK Nov. CPI eased off just a bit, but the YoY number needs to drop back well below 4% to offer any support for the BoE’s stance of looking through high inflation levels. Fortunately for the BoE, gasoline prices have been fairly steady for the last few months and the year-on-year comparisons there could help the index fall back a bit.
The US Retail Sales number was decidedly weak, showing sales expanding half as fast as expected. This is particularly weak given the relatively early Thanksgiving this year (theoretically expanding the length of the US Christmas season.)
Looking aheadThe world is obviously rather underwhelmed with last week’s EU summit, but hasn’t exactly gone out of its way to express much dismay so far across markets. After all, EURUSD is only off a few figures from its recent bounce, the US equity market is still inside the range of the last seven or eight days, and bonds are firm, if not exactly rallying. There is an odd combination out there of plenty of fear, without many appearing especially willing to express it. That being the case, it appears the world is looking for a further catalyst to move the markets. The next obvious potential catalyst is the FOMC meeting up in a while, though it would seem that only a more hawkish than expected performance would trigger any real surprise and market volatility. The other potential catalysts this week are the eternal ad hoc announcements from EU officialdom in following up on last week’s summit and Euro Zone sovereign bond auctions (the Thursday Spanish auctions especially noteworthy.)
Stay tuned and stay careful out there.
Economic Data Highlights UK Nov. RICS House Price Balance out at -17% vs. -25% expected and -24% in Oct. Australia Q3 Dwelling Starts out at -6.8% QoQ vs. -1.0% expected and -4.1% in Q2 Australia Nov. NAB Business Confidence/Conditions out at 2 and 1, respectively , vs. 2 and -1 in Oct., respectively Sweden Nov. CPI out at
Today saw relatively tight range trading after yesterday’s big swings, as the market is either awaiting the outcome of tonight’s FOMC meeting or simply biding its time for any other number of catalysts. US Retail Sales figures were rather downbeat and one of the more notable disappointments after a long string of very strong data.
FOMC PreviewWe’ve got a one-day FOMC meeting set for today, with a new monetary policy statement on the way at 19:15 GMT. Considering that this is a short meeting with no Bernanke press conference and that it will be the last meeting with the three hawkish regional Fed presidents as voters, it’s easy to believe that any major policy hints will await a likely less rowdy bunch of replacements from the regions. Then again, the other of the four voters who is about to become a non-voter, Evans of the Chicago Fed, recently actually dissented on the dovish side, outlining a particularly aggressive monetary forcing in the economy aimed at boosting unemployment through NGDP targeting – creating nominal growth regardless of inflationary consequences through monetary forcing.. It brought to my mind the image of force feeding geese to grow their livers for pate. We’ve yet to see other Fed members expressing enthusiasm for this “nuclear option”, but one wonders what a steep drop in core CPI readings early next year and an unemployment rate bounce back above 9.0% might do for Fed sentiment, should that come to pass. On that note, watch out for this Friday’s CPI release as the month-on-month core numbers have been creeping lower over the last two months, even if the year-on-year levels are near 3-year highs.
Of the four new voters, only one is known to be a hawk, and even if he – Lacker of the Richmond Fed – is a rather outspoken hawk, one wonders what will stop the doves in the New Year. The majority, at least, all seem pliable to the academic absolutism of the Mr. Bernanke and the belief that the Fed can always engineer a rescue with additional helicopter drops of cash/liquidity. But there are a number of forces that could stand in the way of further action from the Fed in the New Year: economic (continued stronger than expected growth and in particular improvement in the labour market or higher than expected inflation), political (stronger signs that the Fed will face resistance from Congress and/or the president. This has boiled up at times, but there’s not enough of a consensus, though it bears watching whether a presidential candidate from the Republican side, or especially from a third party picks up the blame-the-Fed rhetoric. It’s certainly low-hanging fruit for a protest/occupy movement) and financial (Fed unable to keep order across the entire yield curve, creating uncomfortably high yields out at the longer end of the curve. No signs of this at all so far, but worth watching for a bottom in the 30-year bond cycle of ever lower yields.)
Odds and endsThe Germany ZEW survey was a bit better than expected, though still extremely low by historic standards (only late 2008 and 1992 saw similar lows). The current situation component also declined to a 17-month low.
The UK Nov. CPI eased off just a bit, but the YoY number needs to drop back well below 4% to offer any support for the BoE’s stance of looking through high inflation levels. Fortunately for the BoE, gasoline prices have been fairly steady for the last few months and the year-on-year comparisons there could help the index fall back a bit.
The US Retail Sales number was decidedly weak, showing sales expanding half as fast as expected. This is particularly weak given the relatively early Thanksgiving this year (theoretically expanding the length of the US Christmas season.)
Looking aheadThe world is obviously rather underwhelmed with last week’s EU summit, but hasn’t exactly gone out of its way to express much dismay so far across markets. After all, EURUSD is only off a few figures from its recent bounce, the US equity market is still inside the range of the last seven or eight days, and bonds are firm, if not exactly rallying. There is an odd combination out there of plenty of fear, without many appearing especially willing to express it. That being the case, it appears the world is looking for a further catalyst to move the markets. The next obvious potential catalyst is the FOMC meeting up in a while, though it would seem that only a more hawkish than expected performance would trigger any real surprise and market volatility. The other potential catalysts this week are the eternal ad hoc announcements from EU officialdom in following up on last week’s summit and Euro Zone sovereign bond auctions (the Thursday Spanish auctions especially noteworthy.)
Stay tuned and stay careful out there.
Economic Data Highlights UK Nov. RICS House Price Balance out at -17% vs. -25% expected and -24% in Oct. Australia Q3 Dwelling Starts out at -6.8% QoQ vs. -1.0% expected and -4.1% in Q2 Australia Nov. NAB Business Confidence/Conditions out at 2 and 1, respectively , vs. 2 and -1 in Oct., respectively Sweden Nov. CPI out at
US Fed keep the status quo!
More Neil Staines, 9 hours ago14 December 2011
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For a brief while the focus of attention of market participants and commentators stepped away from the intense scrutiny of the Eurozone yesterday and crossed the Atlantic for a look at the US economic backdrop and the implications for US monetary policy as narrated by Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke.
Before the announcement the discussions were centred around the recent above-consensus economic data and the implications (as seen by the FOMC – Federal Open Market Committee) for US monetary policy. The reality however was subtle at best.
“Can’t give you more”
The Fed left the target interest rate at zero to 0.25%, suggesting that the economy is “Expanding moderately as global growth slows”. The decision had one dissenter, Evans, who was in favour of further easing. Bernanke was perhaps surprisingly quick to acknowledge the improvement in consumer sentiment and spending (considering that the improvement has been concentrated to the most recent data and yesterday’s retail sales were disappointing) and the broader economic backdrop which he suggested “has continued to advance”. However, despite the marked improvement in the unemployment rate in November the central line is that unemployment remains elevated, business investment is increasing at a slower pace and “Financial strains still pose significant downside risks”.
“Whatever you want”?
The statement clearly highlighted that the Fed “is prepared to employ tools to boost (the) recovery” and stated explicitly that rates will remain “exceptionally low” through “at least mid 2013”. This remains in line with the central projection of markets which have the first rate hike from the Fed ‘priced in’ for Q1 2014, which is as it was before the statement, suggesting that the Fed did nothing to change monetary policy expectations, despite the recent improvements in the backdrop.
“I Didn’t mean it”
The remaining issues of the eurozone compact were brought to the fore yesterday as the worst fears of many became a reality. The Irish Prime Minister was quoted as saying that “Ireland will hold a referendum on the EU treaty if necessary”. Whilst the intimation was subtle (if necessary), the implicit connotation is that the ‘agreement’ of the EU17 becomes moot if countries within the euro have to consult the democratic process. Ultimately this adds to the uncertainty and not “likely to help bond markets” as Sarkozy proclaimed on Monday.
“Euro Summit is not enough to help the region's ratings” – Moody’s
“Down, down deeper and down”
A large focus of the FX market today will be on the significance of the 1.3000 level and the technical dynamic of the ‘barrier option strikes’ that encompass it. Overnight we have seen a couple of attempts at the 1.30 level, set in motion by the FOMC statement. For now at least the bids that lie ahead of the psychological level have contained the down move, however, the size of the bids ahead of 1.3000 will be outnumbered in size by the amount of stop loss orders to sell EURUSD should the 1.3000 level be breached.
“Rockin’ all over the world”
GBP remains relatively well supported in the current environment as the uncertainty surrounding the Eurozone continues to dominate. The USD has clearly taken pole position on the FX grid, but EURGBP still remains a core trade view of mine into the end of the year. Employment data this morning will be important in terms of broader UK specific sentiment, and monetary policy implications for the UK going forward. However, the biggest risk and therefore arguably the biggest driver of monetary policy in the UK remains the events of the Eurozone. This will not change until there is a credible plan for Europe.
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EU treaty cracks emerging while Merkel rejects increased ESM
More Mads Koefoed, 9 hours ago14 December 2011 Non-Independent Investment Research The most awaited December 9 EU summit saw most of the EU agree to a new treaty and Eurozone leaders have huffed and puffed ever since to convince us all that the new treaty was a decisive step in the right direction. The only problem being that EU leaders had forgotten to ask their respective national parliaments, which along with most populations, seem discontent about the whole arrangement. While the UK moved swiftly at the summit itself and vetoed the new treaty four additional countries are rumoured to be considering renegating on their original (pro-) stance. Add to this that Chancellor Merkel rejected an increase to the European Stability Mechanism yesterday and that France has no plans for a budget vote and the picture looks grim.
Marranos y La Economia En El Rio de La Plata (Spanish Edition)
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(LEER INFORMACION) www.lacapital.com.ar El “ambientalismo de los pobres”, una agenda de supervivencia Los detractores de la ecología siempre dicen que la preocupación por el medioambiente es algo así como un pasatiempo de los ciudadanos de los países ricos que, como no tienen que preocuparse por llegar a fin de mes ni por los paros docentes deciden proteger a las ballenas del Atlántico Sur oa los pandas chinos. Para Joan Martínez Alier, experto español en economía ecológica, ese conservacionismo con raíces casi estéticas
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VareseFocus, italian magazine
Read this free monthly magazine on your Android deviceKeep up to date on Italian economics, finance, and cultureNote that the magazine’s text is in Italian only
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Depresión.(economía, España)(TT: Depression.)(TA: economy, Spain)(Artículo Breve): An article from: Epoca
This digital document is an article from Epoca, published by Difusora de Informacion Periodica, S.A. (DINPESA) on January 18, 2002. The length of the article is 821 words. The page length shown above is based on a typical 300-word page. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Digital Locker immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.
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Economia y sistema de haciendas en Mexico: La hacienda pulquera en el cambio, siglos XVIII, XIX y XX (Coleccion Problemas de Mexico) (Spanish Edition)
Posted on 14-12-2011Etiquetas: cambio, Coleccion, Economía, Edition, Hacienda, haciendas, Mexico, problemas, pulquera, siglos, Sistema, Spanish, XVIII 0
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Freno de mano a la economía.(España)(TT: Stopping the economy.)(TA: Spain)(Artículo Breve): An article from: Epoca
This digital document is an article from Epoca, published by Difusora de Informacion Periodica, S.A. (DINPESA) on April 30, 2001. The length of the article is 465 words. The page length shown above is based on a typical 300-word page. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Digital Locker immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.
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Los secretos para ganar dinero en la bolsa (Spanish Edition)
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Economia/ Economy: Curso basico para alumnos de bachillerato/ Basic Course for High School Students (Spanish Edition)
Posted on 14-12-2011Etiquetas: ALUMNOS, bachillerato, Basic, BASICO, Course, Curso, Economía, economy, Edition, High, para, School, Spanish, Students 0
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Health Policy Issues: An Economic Perspective
This book will help your students understand the economics underlying the issues and politics of healthcare. It presents 36 short, topical chapters that focus on the financing and delivery of medical services. The fifth edition includes updated chapters, figures, and tables as well as a new chapter on comparative effectiveness research and a completely revised chapter on the new Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010 (ACA). A summary of the ACA is included in the appendix.
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Economia, sociedad y real hacienda en las Indias espanolas (Humanidades) (Spanish Edition)
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IV Jornadas Nacionales de Defensa de la Competencia celebradas en Las Palmas de Gran Canaria los días 10 y 11 de junio en el Auditorio Alfredo Kraus, organizadas por la Viceconsejería de Economía y Asuntos Económicos con la Unión Europea, adscrita a la Consejería de Economía y Hacienda del Gobierno de Canarias, en colaboración con la Comisión Nacional de la Competencia y la Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.
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martes, 13 de diciembre de 2011
- Comic Sans Euro holds above 2-month low but still vulnerable vVIzLOlK
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EUR consolidates in Asia after slump, but still looks vulnerable
More Andrew Robinson, 8 hours ago13 December 2011 Non-Independent Investment Research The Asian session saw EUR and AUD trade a tad heavy early on a headline that China would withhold aid until the EU meets certain conditions. But once it was ascertained that the comment came from an academic at Peking University and not a policy-maker the slide halted. Tight ranges ensued thereafter.
Of the data releases, The UK’s RICS house price balance surprised most to the upside with a -17 percent reading after a 3-month pause at -24 percent, and its highest reading in more than one year with surveyors reporting an increase in the number of buyer inquiries. But limited access to housing finance is expected to make any kind of recovery in the housing market a long and protracted one.
There was nothing too exciting from Australia’s NAB business surveys with business confidence unchanged at
Of the data releases, The UK’s RICS house price balance surprised most to the upside with a -17 percent reading after a 3-month pause at -24 percent, and its highest reading in more than one year with surveyors reporting an increase in the number of buyer inquiries. But limited access to housing finance is expected to make any kind of recovery in the housing market a long and protracted one.
There was nothing too exciting from Australia’s NAB business surveys with business confidence unchanged at
Last FOMC meeting before the doves arrive?
More Mads Koefoed, 5 hours ago13 December 2011 Non-Independent Investment Research We crank up the activity today with several key monthly indicators, including US Retail Sales, followed by the last FOMC meeting of the year this evening, which will be the last such meeting for several of the hawks in the group.
The calm before the catatonia for currencies?
More Ken Veksler, 4 hours ago13 December 2011 North American equities closing in the red gave the Asian bourses little positive to go on and having traded most of the session with a sideways if not negative tone we walk in Tuesday to more of the same.
News overnight that Moody’s has downgraded another 8 Spanish banks, coupled with the fact that China has put an obvious proviso on the investment vehicle announced last week (they will look carefully at certain criteria being satisfied etc.) led to more sales in the EURUSD. It tested 1.3180 overnight and then took out stops below to trade to an overnight low of 1.3160/65.
Other high beta currencies also took some pain and the overall USD side of the equation continues to look healthy as the DXY continues its consolidation and prepares for further upside.
EURGBP was the star performer in yesterday’s session, and while many pundits in the market here in London believe this price action was vindication of Cameron’s weekend veto, the reality of the situation remains that there were simply significant right hand side GBP flows associated with dividend payments. Technical levels in the EURGBP being breached clearly somewhat coloured this picture.
The day ahead holds little by way of important data, save for the following; UK CPI (which actually has the potential to surprise to the upside), the ZEW survey results for both Germany and Europe (it’s the same thing these days surely) and, of course, tonight we have the FOMC announcement. On the latter, I look for no change to the overall rhetoric and certainly no change to parameters of either rates or stimulus package. There is, however, the chance that the rate path as set out in previous meetings with a mid 2013 horizon will be extended (if not formally, then certainly in spirit) out to the end of 2013.
Levels for the major pairs remain in play as they were form the tail end of last week and the disappointment of a failed summit. The bias as noted above is for more USD purchases, however, and rallies in “risk” pairs serve as opportunities for traders to further fade strength.
In EURUSD the first port of call on a small squeeze this morning is the important 1.3250 pivot level, with stops assuredly sitting just above, while 1.3280/00 should prove to be a far more formidable mountain to ascend.
AUDUSD likewise will have initial difficulty above 1.0130/50, but if the EURUSD decides to go for a headline driven run, then this pair too will have a look at 1.0200/30. Personally, I don’t rate its chances and the downside still remains the favoured directional play.
Cable becomes an enigma play today and best stood aside from. Various M&A and dividend flows seen over the last 5 or so trading days have meant that the pair has decoupled in the very short term from the rest of the market. But worth noting the incredible ability of the pair to hold the 1.5550 support level.
Keep an eye on EURAUD as this pair is in thin markets and, in the coming days especially, has the real potential of cleaning out significant stops sitting below historic lows at 1.3000 before roaring back with a vengeance. Many punters out there have used the quadruple bottom to get long over the last 2 weeks and no doubt many more will attempt to do so again now that we’re down here once more. An inability to exactly put my finger on why has my bones saying to me that we clean out lower before we resume the run higher.
Helmets on remains the overall strategy for forex traders. Just as they say only mad dogs and Englishmen go out in the midday sun - similar might be said about trading this Christmas market.
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News overnight that Moody’s has downgraded another 8 Spanish banks, coupled with the fact that China has put an obvious proviso on the investment vehicle announced last week (they will look carefully at certain criteria being satisfied etc.) led to more sales in the EURUSD. It tested 1.3180 overnight and then took out stops below to trade to an overnight low of 1.3160/65.
Other high beta currencies also took some pain and the overall USD side of the equation continues to look healthy as the DXY continues its consolidation and prepares for further upside.
EURGBP was the star performer in yesterday’s session, and while many pundits in the market here in London believe this price action was vindication of Cameron’s weekend veto, the reality of the situation remains that there were simply significant right hand side GBP flows associated with dividend payments. Technical levels in the EURGBP being breached clearly somewhat coloured this picture.
The day ahead holds little by way of important data, save for the following; UK CPI (which actually has the potential to surprise to the upside), the ZEW survey results for both Germany and Europe (it’s the same thing these days surely) and, of course, tonight we have the FOMC announcement. On the latter, I look for no change to the overall rhetoric and certainly no change to parameters of either rates or stimulus package. There is, however, the chance that the rate path as set out in previous meetings with a mid 2013 horizon will be extended (if not formally, then certainly in spirit) out to the end of 2013.
Levels for the major pairs remain in play as they were form the tail end of last week and the disappointment of a failed summit. The bias as noted above is for more USD purchases, however, and rallies in “risk” pairs serve as opportunities for traders to further fade strength.
In EURUSD the first port of call on a small squeeze this morning is the important 1.3250 pivot level, with stops assuredly sitting just above, while 1.3280/00 should prove to be a far more formidable mountain to ascend.
AUDUSD likewise will have initial difficulty above 1.0130/50, but if the EURUSD decides to go for a headline driven run, then this pair too will have a look at 1.0200/30. Personally, I don’t rate its chances and the downside still remains the favoured directional play.
Cable becomes an enigma play today and best stood aside from. Various M&A and dividend flows seen over the last 5 or so trading days have meant that the pair has decoupled in the very short term from the rest of the market. But worth noting the incredible ability of the pair to hold the 1.5550 support level.
Keep an eye on EURAUD as this pair is in thin markets and, in the coming days especially, has the real potential of cleaning out significant stops sitting below historic lows at 1.3000 before roaring back with a vengeance. Many punters out there have used the quadruple bottom to get long over the last 2 weeks and no doubt many more will attempt to do so again now that we’re down here once more. An inability to exactly put my finger on why has my bones saying to me that we clean out lower before we resume the run higher.
Helmets on remains the overall strategy for forex traders. Just as they say only mad dogs and Englishmen go out in the midday sun - similar might be said about trading this Christmas market.
Tags: EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, EURGBP, equities, Consumer Price Index 170 Views 0 Like! 0 Comments 0 Follow In order to like something, you need to be a member.
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US, UK, EU: Know your enemy?
More Neil Staines, 2 hours ago13 December 2011
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“Know your enemy” – Rage Against The Machine
“Now I got no patience”
If there is one word that sums up the sentiment of yesterday’s markets it is disappointment. The apathy that consumed trading throughout the day was akin to a disappointing acceptance from the ‘bulls’ that the reality of the EU summit announcements is that we are still a lot further away from a solution to the troubles than it was hoped we would be at this point. The historic tendency for equity markets (and the EUR) to rally in the final month of the year has added to the frustration as stocks, EUR and broad risk assets slumped on the realisation that this year is definitely one to rely on historic correlations, or the norm!
“Still in a room without a view”
The reality of the situation in the eurozone is that there “is no silver bullet”, there is no immediate panacea. The ECB have given what Christian Noyer described yesterday as a “bazooka” in terms of flooding the banking sector with long term liquidity and reducing collateral constraints, however, the uncertainty of the ultimate outcome of the eurozone continues to propagate further uncertainty – One of the reasons that the ECB saw the need to inject further liquidity into the banking sector is that banks are placing money on deposit at the ‘safety’ of the ECB’s facility to the tune of over EUR300 billion a day at the moment, this is a perfect example of the uncertainty of the ‘safety’ of interbank counterparts leading to a reduction in liquidity for the system as a whole. Full monetization of eurozone debt by the ECB is potentially the only real short term action that could cause an about turn in the markets (perhaps along with a full guarantee of eurozone debt from Germany) however legally and politically this is proving a step to far at the current juncture.
“All of which are American dreams”
I discussed briefly yesterday the recent, significant outperformance of the US macro economic backdrop over last few weeks, which has delivered consumer, sentiment and manufacturing data that are likely to see a Q4 GDP print significantly above expectations as recently as a couple of weeks ago. Today we may well get further confirmation of this as small business optimism, retail sales, inventories and a jobs measure pave the way for this evenings US monetary policy meeting (FOMC).
“Mind of a revolutionary”?
As usual on the day of the FOMC, Fed Chairman Bernanke will be the core focus of the proceedings in the build up to the ‘forensic lexicography’ of the statement. Today’s statement however will perhaps be looked at with a subtly but significantly different bias.
December began with a bang in the US as adjustments to the size of the US labour force gave rise to a sharp fall in the Unemployment Rate. Whilst the level of unemployment is still unpalatable for Congress and the Fed, if we add the recent economic momentum to the improved pace of reduction of the unemployment rate (providing that it can be maintained – or at least validated in next months data) then the prospects for Fed policy start to become more two-way.
“compromise, conformity,… “
I am not suggesting that the Fed start to tighten policy any time soon, but the acknowledgement of the improved (even subtly improving) macro economic backdrop, however tentative, may start to put a slightly different perspective on the analysis of Fed policy. For me this is the transition between USD positive news being negative for the USD because the higher ‘beta’ currencies (or those currencies, or assets with a higher correlation to ‘risk’) take greater impetus from the ‘risk positive’ stimuli than the USD, to a point where good US data will ultimately begin to be positive for the USD.
At the current juncture the impact of this is likely to be subtle but as we move into 2012, the implications for currencies such as JPY (particularly if there is a ‘plan’ in the eurozone) are very significant. For today the focus may be on the ‘enemies’ of individual nations and their response to the threats they pose, however the dislocation and disruption of the eurozone crisis and the turbulence of the crises before that have provided a platform for significant opportunity going forward. On of the UK’s biggest enemies of late has been that of Inflation. This mornings data show that the pressure is starting to come down, but with prices still rising at an annual rate of 4.8% it may be a while before inflation falls to a level that is more supportive of consumption and demand growth.
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El Hombre y La Economia En El Pensamiento De CHE
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peru economia alan garcia crecimiento economico cusco lima peruanos trujillo puno alejandro toledo metropolitano castañeda lossio 28 julio
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Iniciación a la economía andaluza.
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1ª parte del documental Historia de la Economía Social Andaluza. Analizamos los fundamentos de la Economía Social, cómo y por qué surgieron este tipo de empresas y su evolución hasta nuestros días en Andalucía.
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Sociedad y Economia En El Occidente Romano (Spanish Edition)
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Economia.
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Hacia formas nuevas de relacion con el sur del mundo: Economias populares y mecanismos europeos de financiamiento alternativo (Spanish Edition)
Posted on 13-12-2011Etiquetas: alternativo, economías, Edition, europeos, financiamiento, formas, Hacia, mecanismos, mundo, nuevas, populares, relación, Spanish 0
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Economia financiera de la empresa (Economia y administracion de empresas) (Spanish Edition)
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En un libro, un addendum o “apéndice” es una adición suplementaria de un trabajo principal. Puede corregir errores, explicar inconsistencias, detallar o actualizar la información del trabajo principal, especialmente si tales errores no fueron detectados a tiempo para corregirlos en el trabajo principal. Enlaces Recomendados El concursante uk.youtube.com Maxed out uk.youtube.com El dinero es deuda uk.youtube.com Money Masters uk.youtube.com Bloodlines of power uk.youtube.com
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Cuatro Problemas de la Economia Espanola
Book has been rebound by libraryThis book has hardback covers.Ex-library,With usual stamps and markings,In fair condition, suitable as a study copy.No dust jacket.
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El Banco Central: Su historia y la economia peruana, 1821-1992 (Spanish Edition)
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America Latina en la economia mundial: Seminario en homenaje al Dr. Raul Prebisch (Spanish Edition)
La batalla por la economía mundial 6 capitulos de 1 hora cada uno. Primera Parte: La Batalla Ideológica Segunda Parte: La Batalla Ideológica Segunda Parte Tercera Parte: La Agonía de la Reforma Cuarta Parte: La Agonía de la Reforma Segunda Parte Quinta Parte Sexta Parte No en vano suele considerarse a la economía como una ciencia lúgubre, pues la mayoría de los progresos importantes en esta materia han sido alentados en las épocas de crisis, donde los errores han sido puestos de manifiesto. Normalmente, en las crisis económicas importantes suele sentarse un serio precedente, donde se refutan teorías económicas, ganan fuerza otras y se descubren los errores cometidos con anterioridad. En la conocida “época dorada del capitalismo” (1945-1973) acaecieron 30 años de ininterrumpido y vigoroso crecimiento con políticas keynesianas. No obstante, a partir de la primera crisis del petróleo (1973) el Titanic keynesiano se dió de bruces con su primer iceberg: la estanflación. John Maynard Keynes había postulado que la inflación y el desempleo eran mutuamente excluyentes; no podían coexistir. Sin embargo, el desempleo con inflación, estanflación, fue una cruda realidad a partir de 1973. El Titanic se derrumbó. A partir de entonces, la economía mundial cambió paulatinamente a una economía más liberal, con especial influencia del Premio Nobel Milton Friedman. Los bancos centrales de todo el mundo empezaron a aplicar la política monetarista de Friedman, con el objeto de controlar la …
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lunes, 12 de diciembre de 2011
- Stamford Bridge #Clasificados "Forex Smart Pips" 62IcaP7N #Avisos #Argentina
Clic Para Ver Professional Forex Trading analysis by Sive Morten with Forex Peace Army. Videos are recorded fresh daily to help forex traders stay profitable. Añadido: November 30, 1999 at 12:00 amAutor: ForexPeaceArmyCOM Duración: 08:26Calificación: 5.0Reproducciones: 795 Etiquetas: forex trading signals analysis sive_morten forexpeacearmy currency exchange market Peace Army COM EUR/USD Forecast Dec. 12, 2011, Technical Analysis by FXEmpire.com
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All roads lead down from the EU summit?
More Neil Staines, 10 hours ago12 December 2011
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Monetary union, fiscal union, political union… “that which we call a rose by any other name would smell as…. … “ - William Shakespeare
While the weekend press in the UK was full of the potential implications and ramifications of the UK after its veto of the new EU treaty on Friday, the focus of market attention this week is likely to come back towards a monetary union that promised fiscal union and despite the fact that there was the promise of a further EUR200 billion funding via the International Monetary Fund, the lack of detail as to where this money is going to come from and the distinct lack of any specific areas of progress, the issues surrounding the Eurozone today look remarkably similar to that of last week, or the week before!
“All that glistens is not gold”
After a risk rally into the EU summit at the end of last week, the markets have not really given anything back. Though there is still the possibility that the EU builds on the (still fragile) basis of a ‘fiscal compact’, the promise that the fiscal imprudence and divergent competitiveness will not happen again within the union are not the same as forming a plan for repairing confidence in the finances and structure of the Eurozone itself. While this week is likely to highlight a growing illiquidity there confidence may begin to wane as further detail (or lack of) emerge this week.
“Parting is such sweet sorrow”
Political infighting in the UK’s coalition government will likely continue to be propagated by the popular press however, while Deputy PM and his Liberal Democratic party have seemingly changed tack and began to decry the Prime Ministe'rs decision to veto the treaty change two opinion polls over the weekend suggesting that the populace is resoundingly in favour of David Cameron's actions mean that it is unlikely that Messrs Clegg and Cable ‘stamp their feet’ for too long.
“I say there is no darkness but ignorance”
Interestingly the UK trade data on Friday highlighted a strong boost to the external position as it narrowed by a record amount in October as exports rose 9.0 percent, lead by a record level of exports to non-EU countries (GBP12.6 billion) taking the total deficit (goods and services) to just GBP1.552 billion (from GBP4.298 billion in September). I am increasingly confident that the UK’s glass is half full
“Boldness be my friend”
On the other side of the Atlantic, the improvement in the macroeconomic backdrop in the US seems to have been largely overlooked as the latest chapter of the Eurozone debacle played out. The reality of the situation however is that the US is now likely to post a significantly higher GDP print for Q4 than would have been believed as recently as two weeks ago. This is an interesting dynamic as we move into the last couple of weeks of the year. There is a raft of US data this week and further confirmation of an improving backdrop is likely to see further gains for the USD – particularly if Congress makes progress on extending the payroll tax cut that expires at the end of the year.
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Slowing exports from China and Australia confirm global slowdown
More Andrew Robinson, 9 hours ago12 December 2011 Non-Independent Investment Research
China released its trade data for October at the weekend which showed a further decline in exports growth for the month (up 13.8 percent y/y versus
This is a new all-time low for the EU
More Steen Jakobsen, 8 hours ago12 December 2011 Non-Independent Investment Research I’ve got a few further comments on last week’s frantic push by the EU leadership to ram through promises of a March treaty change. Before we get started – important to declare that no, it still won’t work.
There is simply no way that Germany and France can implement the newly proposed “automatic policy” of debt brakes under the current EU framework. The EU Court of Justice and the EU Commission report to the full Euro Zone, meaning all of its 27 members. The UK, for example, can veto any and all changes to this, so again this is a plan for a plan until someone can explain how we can have a new treaty within the treaty without all 27 members on board.
The post-Dec. 9 summit environment leaves Europe widely divided but now in a three way split:
The EU Core: Mer-kozy Land. I doubt many countries want to be a part of this in the longer term....austerity without growth is the new buzz phrase here. EU Outsiders: Sweden, Denmark, and Czech Republic are the main countries. These countries are in doubt – should they side with Mer-kozy or the UK? As if that was a hard decision… UK: A vote on the EU would see the UK leave the EU and this would mark the first major break-down in the EU project. The UK remains by far the most powerful capital market and would gain relative importance for years going forward. We see signs of serious bidding in 12-month EURGBP puts already (meaning the market agrees with Cameron and disagrees with Mer-kozy).
There is nothing new in the new EU Plan - nothing!
This new plan simply does not address the core issues of the threat to peripheral debt defaults: there is still no prospect for true EuroBonds, the ECB will not print money, there will be no fiscal transfer between nations, there is no treaty change (despite plans for March) and there is no solution for a tri-party agreement moving the agenda.
Yes, the banking system will get more access to funds from special ECB operations, but the interbank lending market is a virtually non-existent. Our picture of a one-engine plane over the Atlantic remains the analogy of choice. (“This is your captain speaking – bad news is that three engines have just gone out (private liquidity), the good news is that we have one engine still running strong (public liquidity").
What now?
Already this morning, Germany’s Bundestag President Lammert told Der Spiegel that he will make sure that the decisions taken by the EU heads of government are consistent with an earlier ruling of the German Constitutional Court that defined limits on the extent to which fiscal sovereignty can be shifted to the European level. Good luck!
We are one step closer to my “meeting of the Cardinals” next year, a new and “final” summit that takes place as the EU is more or less forced to declare a kind of Chapter 11 and realign itself drastically to allow it to become a sustainable operation. This Dec 8-9 summit was a third low point for the EU. To recap those low points:
The original violations of the Growth and Stability Pact. Thank you, Portugal, Germany, France and Netherland (In order of violation) The May 2010 agreement allowing the ECB to intervene in the secondary bond market – making the ECB the only customer in Spanish, Greek, Irish and Italian bonds. The agreement to set up a new EU treaty inside the existing EU treaty (December 2011). That’s a tough one, Mer-kozy. Diluting Europe is hardly the long-term solution, and the “core” is no longer core when the spreading debt spreads have even spread to France because of its shaky fiscal outlook. Europe will inevitably face wide spread downgrades on this as the early talks from rating agencies is: Changes? Where Europe?
Sidenote: Denmark
The Danish fixed-rate link to Europe will come under attack, but if Denmark decides to be public, pro-active and transparent on policy, it should not become a major issue, as the rest of Europe is about to disintegrate under this complex attempt at a solution.
There is law of organizational theory that says that if you add a single business line, you will increase the organizational complexity by two! That’s Europe for you. The complexity is now so devilish that even the politicians are confused – right now in Brussels and Strasbourg the bureaucrats are searching through the EU laws and Treaties to find loopholes which mitigate the policy mistakes taken by Mer-kozy and Europe this past week.
To do business by “sneaking in” changes (fostering a treaty-within-a-treaty) hardly has anything to do with long-term solutions, like having technocrats running countries (Italy and Greece), or the new ESM being the new, new EFSF, when the supposed source of funds remains the same: nonexistent.
Politics in general has descended into a state of no accountability in Europe. The good news, however, is that we are reaching the outer limits of interventionism. In the EU, public money has now entirely replaced private money in the sovereign bond market, and banks are fuelled not by deposits from its customers, but by central bank liquidity as far away as the US, so It can only get better and soon.
It looks like 2012 will provide a low in this negative cycle which started in 1999/2000, where the world reached its effective peaks in production and growth. Since then, we have been financially leveraging the weak growth and inflicting enormous damage on our balance sheet while allocating resources to the wrong sectors of the economy. So as we sail across the rough seas of the next couple of quarters of crisis, it will be important to celebrate what will hopefully be recognized as the failure of interventionism and the very beginnings of a new and better cycle of employment, productivity and economic growth.
This latest EU Summit all but guarantees that 2012 will have a rough start, but hopefully it will also lead to Europe starting afresh once we see a “Meeting of Cardinals” in perhaps Q2 of 2012.
Safe travels,
Steen Jakobsen
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There is simply no way that Germany and France can implement the newly proposed “automatic policy” of debt brakes under the current EU framework. The EU Court of Justice and the EU Commission report to the full Euro Zone, meaning all of its 27 members. The UK, for example, can veto any and all changes to this, so again this is a plan for a plan until someone can explain how we can have a new treaty within the treaty without all 27 members on board.
The post-Dec. 9 summit environment leaves Europe widely divided but now in a three way split:
The EU Core: Mer-kozy Land. I doubt many countries want to be a part of this in the longer term....austerity without growth is the new buzz phrase here. EU Outsiders: Sweden, Denmark, and Czech Republic are the main countries. These countries are in doubt – should they side with Mer-kozy or the UK? As if that was a hard decision… UK: A vote on the EU would see the UK leave the EU and this would mark the first major break-down in the EU project. The UK remains by far the most powerful capital market and would gain relative importance for years going forward. We see signs of serious bidding in 12-month EURGBP puts already (meaning the market agrees with Cameron and disagrees with Mer-kozy).
There is nothing new in the new EU Plan - nothing!
This new plan simply does not address the core issues of the threat to peripheral debt defaults: there is still no prospect for true EuroBonds, the ECB will not print money, there will be no fiscal transfer between nations, there is no treaty change (despite plans for March) and there is no solution for a tri-party agreement moving the agenda.
Yes, the banking system will get more access to funds from special ECB operations, but the interbank lending market is a virtually non-existent. Our picture of a one-engine plane over the Atlantic remains the analogy of choice. (“This is your captain speaking – bad news is that three engines have just gone out (private liquidity), the good news is that we have one engine still running strong (public liquidity").
What now?
Already this morning, Germany’s Bundestag President Lammert told Der Spiegel that he will make sure that the decisions taken by the EU heads of government are consistent with an earlier ruling of the German Constitutional Court that defined limits on the extent to which fiscal sovereignty can be shifted to the European level. Good luck!
We are one step closer to my “meeting of the Cardinals” next year, a new and “final” summit that takes place as the EU is more or less forced to declare a kind of Chapter 11 and realign itself drastically to allow it to become a sustainable operation. This Dec 8-9 summit was a third low point for the EU. To recap those low points:
The original violations of the Growth and Stability Pact. Thank you, Portugal, Germany, France and Netherland (In order of violation) The May 2010 agreement allowing the ECB to intervene in the secondary bond market – making the ECB the only customer in Spanish, Greek, Irish and Italian bonds. The agreement to set up a new EU treaty inside the existing EU treaty (December 2011). That’s a tough one, Mer-kozy. Diluting Europe is hardly the long-term solution, and the “core” is no longer core when the spreading debt spreads have even spread to France because of its shaky fiscal outlook. Europe will inevitably face wide spread downgrades on this as the early talks from rating agencies is: Changes? Where Europe?
Sidenote: Denmark
The Danish fixed-rate link to Europe will come under attack, but if Denmark decides to be public, pro-active and transparent on policy, it should not become a major issue, as the rest of Europe is about to disintegrate under this complex attempt at a solution.
There is law of organizational theory that says that if you add a single business line, you will increase the organizational complexity by two! That’s Europe for you. The complexity is now so devilish that even the politicians are confused – right now in Brussels and Strasbourg the bureaucrats are searching through the EU laws and Treaties to find loopholes which mitigate the policy mistakes taken by Mer-kozy and Europe this past week.
To do business by “sneaking in” changes (fostering a treaty-within-a-treaty) hardly has anything to do with long-term solutions, like having technocrats running countries (Italy and Greece), or the new ESM being the new, new EFSF, when the supposed source of funds remains the same: nonexistent.
Politics in general has descended into a state of no accountability in Europe. The good news, however, is that we are reaching the outer limits of interventionism. In the EU, public money has now entirely replaced private money in the sovereign bond market, and banks are fuelled not by deposits from its customers, but by central bank liquidity as far away as the US, so It can only get better and soon.
It looks like 2012 will provide a low in this negative cycle which started in 1999/2000, where the world reached its effective peaks in production and growth. Since then, we have been financially leveraging the weak growth and inflicting enormous damage on our balance sheet while allocating resources to the wrong sectors of the economy. So as we sail across the rough seas of the next couple of quarters of crisis, it will be important to celebrate what will hopefully be recognized as the failure of interventionism and the very beginnings of a new and better cycle of employment, productivity and economic growth.
This latest EU Summit all but guarantees that 2012 will have a rough start, but hopefully it will also lead to Europe starting afresh once we see a “Meeting of Cardinals” in perhaps Q2 of 2012.
Safe travels,
Steen Jakobsen
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Euro edging back to technical abyss – for good reason
More John J Hardy, 6 hours ago12 December 2011 Non-Independent Investment Research A look at three interesting Euro crosses as the EU summit once again is unable to instill confidence. We also look at the highlights for the week ahead on the economic calendar, which is a busy one this week.
I won’t spend much time on the EU summit today after our posts and video on Friday and after our Chief economist’s Steen Jakobsen’s chronicle today, but suffice it to say that I am surprised at just how rapidly the market is losing faith once again, even as we have outlined the many reasons that this summit failed to provide any longer term solution. As Steen points out in his piece, one of the more interesting developments from last week’s process has been the degree to which Cameron has distanced himself and the UK even further from the EU core represented by Merkel/Sarkozy and the degree to which the market is nodding its approval of Mr. Cameron’s actions (and the benefit to the UK financial sector – its biggest asset – as the UK will never go forward with a the Financial Transaction Tax so many EU politicians are going on about.)
Chart: EURUSD
The EURUSD hardly gained much in anticipation of the summit (likely largely due to the fact that any solution was perceived to involve a much easier stance from the ECB, even if it also provided some relief on), though sovereign debt spreads improved quite dramatically. Now, EU credibility is perhaps in worse tatters than ever before and spreads are blowing back wider. The result is a EURUSD pressing at the lower end of the range and threatening to reach levels not seen since January of this year if the 1.3150 area early October low is taken out. Consider that the S&P 500 was trading well below 1100 when that low was posted while this time around, it is not more than a few percent from 4-month highs. If we ever get broad based risk off again, a charge to 1.2500 might be in the cards in the weeks ahead.
I won’t spend much time on the EU summit today after our posts and video on Friday and after our Chief economist’s Steen Jakobsen’s chronicle today, but suffice it to say that I am surprised at just how rapidly the market is losing faith once again, even as we have outlined the many reasons that this summit failed to provide any longer term solution. As Steen points out in his piece, one of the more interesting developments from last week’s process has been the degree to which Cameron has distanced himself and the UK even further from the EU core represented by Merkel/Sarkozy and the degree to which the market is nodding its approval of Mr. Cameron’s actions (and the benefit to the UK financial sector – its biggest asset – as the UK will never go forward with a the Financial Transaction Tax so many EU politicians are going on about.)
Chart: EURUSD
The EURUSD hardly gained much in anticipation of the summit (likely largely due to the fact that any solution was perceived to involve a much easier stance from the ECB, even if it also provided some relief on), though sovereign debt spreads improved quite dramatically. Now, EU credibility is perhaps in worse tatters than ever before and spreads are blowing back wider. The result is a EURUSD pressing at the lower end of the range and threatening to reach levels not seen since January of this year if the 1.3150 area early October low is taken out. Consider that the S&P 500 was trading well below 1100 when that low was posted while this time around, it is not more than a few percent from 4-month highs. If we ever get broad based risk off again, a charge to 1.2500 might be in the cards in the weeks ahead.
Que ganamos y que perdimos con el TLC (Economia y demografia) (Spanish Edition)
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Matías de Stefano, el joven Indigo nos explica los procesos generales por los cuales hemos decidido nacer aquí y ahora asi como comprender cuál es la misión conjunta para los próximos años.Hablo de la transformación social que se manifestará durante la proxima era de acuario. Maestros del Tarot tuvo acceso a una entrevista que se realizó en la ciudad de Barcelona. maestrosdeltarot.tv
VIDEO el economia
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Economia, Que es el dinero? (The Economy. What Is Money?) (Libros Del Alba) (Spanish Edition)
Una guia que lleva a los ninos por una maravillosa aventura: los conceptos economicos. En este libro los ninos aprenderan como manejar su dinera, descubrir el secreto mundo de las bancos y el fascinante mundo de las finanzas. ENGLISH TRANSLATION A guide that leads children on a wonderful adventure through econoÂ
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El Desarrollo y la economia regional: El nuevo marco teorico y sus aplicaciones a la politica regional (Coleccion Estudios) (Spanish Edition)
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El mundo crecerá moderadamente.(economía, pronósticos)(TT: World will grow moderately.)(TA: economy, forescast): An article from: Semana
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Essays on Political Economy
This is a reprint of the 1869 first edition in English, which was translated from the Paris edition of 1869. Contents: Sophisms of Protection – First Series Sophisms of Protection – Second Series Spoliation and Law Capital and Interest From the 1869 preface: “In combating, by arguments and illustrations adapted to the comprehension of the mass of mankind, the errors and sophisms with which protectionists deceive themselves and others, M. Bastiat is the most lucid and pointed of all writers on economical science with whose works I have any acquaintance. It is not necessary to accord him a place among the architects of the science of political economy, although some of his admirers rank him among the highest. It is enough to count him among the greatest of its expounders and demonstrators.”
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Las finanzas y la creacion del valor: 50 reflexiones desde la economia financiera (Spanish Edition)
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domingo, 11 de diciembre de 2011
China cuts RRR and risk jumps – should it?
More John J Hardy, 30 November 201130 November 2011 Non-Independent Investment Research The PBOC has just announced that, as of Dec. 5, it will lower the reserve-requirement-ratio by 50 basis points, marking the first reversal in the RRR policy since late 2008. Should risk celebrate or worry?
With all focus on the EU of late, the market has neglected developments elsewhere, particularly China, where the economy is clearly beginning to suffer after a vicious series of tightening moves aimed at reining in the country’s property and credit bubbles that began in early 2010 and accelerated earlier this year. Risk has decided to celebrate this move in classic Pavlovian fashion, but is this the green light for risk, or a troubling indicator that China is on the verge of a significant adjustment in its economy as its bubbles unwind?
The key problem with China is its opacity and the inability to get a firm read on its economy from the published data, though some of that data was indeed showing signs of an economy coming well off the boil, including a recent flash PMI reading for November well under 50 and signs that inflation levels were decelerating as well. Anecdotal evidence of interlocking lending networks blowing up and overbuilding were far more worrisome.
It is important to understand this policy move as the beginning of a process as policy moves are very rarely one off affairs, but rather the start of serial bouts of further actions in the same direction. So policy makers in China obviously judge that the risks are very much weighted to the downside from here rather than the upside for the economy. The last time China eased the RRR was actually in late 2008.
Considering that the market has a terminal case of long term amnesia (preferring recent memories to longer term ones), we should ask the question of whether this move is more akin to a Fed QE2 or to the Fed’s first easing of policy in mid-September of 2007. In the former case, the market celebrated with months of liquidity celebration. But in the former case (and in other examples from US economic history and in the history of other economies) the first actual easing move was merely one of a series of indicators that an economy is in trouble and must work through a significant period of weakness before establishing a new base from which to grow. So in the Fed case from September 2007, the initial 50 bps easing touched off a raging rally in risk assets that lasted less than four weeks before the S&P500 posted its all-time top in October 2007 before falling some 57% by early 2009.
We’re not going to suggest that history always repeats, but a sober assessment of which model to follow (bubble economy needing to deleverage and retrench vs. spraying liquidity in a bizarre, QE and post-bubble environment) is a must here.
In that light, the initial reaction/celebration is likely a red herring. Tags: forex, EURUSD, AUDUSD, macro 299 Views 0 Like! 0 Comments 0 Follow In order to like something, you need to be a member.
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With all focus on the EU of late, the market has neglected developments elsewhere, particularly China, where the economy is clearly beginning to suffer after a vicious series of tightening moves aimed at reining in the country’s property and credit bubbles that began in early 2010 and accelerated earlier this year. Risk has decided to celebrate this move in classic Pavlovian fashion, but is this the green light for risk, or a troubling indicator that China is on the verge of a significant adjustment in its economy as its bubbles unwind?
The key problem with China is its opacity and the inability to get a firm read on its economy from the published data, though some of that data was indeed showing signs of an economy coming well off the boil, including a recent flash PMI reading for November well under 50 and signs that inflation levels were decelerating as well. Anecdotal evidence of interlocking lending networks blowing up and overbuilding were far more worrisome.
It is important to understand this policy move as the beginning of a process as policy moves are very rarely one off affairs, but rather the start of serial bouts of further actions in the same direction. So policy makers in China obviously judge that the risks are very much weighted to the downside from here rather than the upside for the economy. The last time China eased the RRR was actually in late 2008.
Considering that the market has a terminal case of long term amnesia (preferring recent memories to longer term ones), we should ask the question of whether this move is more akin to a Fed QE2 or to the Fed’s first easing of policy in mid-September of 2007. In the former case, the market celebrated with months of liquidity celebration. But in the former case (and in other examples from US economic history and in the history of other economies) the first actual easing move was merely one of a series of indicators that an economy is in trouble and must work through a significant period of weakness before establishing a new base from which to grow. So in the Fed case from September 2007, the initial 50 bps easing touched off a raging rally in risk assets that lasted less than four weeks before the S&P500 posted its all-time top in October 2007 before falling some 57% by early 2009.
We’re not going to suggest that history always repeats, but a sober assessment of which model to follow (bubble economy needing to deleverage and retrench vs. spraying liquidity in a bizarre, QE and post-bubble environment) is a must here.
In that light, the initial reaction/celebration is likely a red herring. Tags: forex, EURUSD, AUDUSD, macro 299 Views 0 Like! 0 Comments 0 Follow In order to like something, you need to be a member.
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Central banks lower swap rates by 50 basis points
More Nick Beecroft, 30 November 201130 November 2011 Non-Independent Investment Research
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Maximum intervention just moved into a higher gear, as the Central banks of the US, the Eurozone, the UK, Switzerland and Canada announced that they would lower the margin they charge over US Dollar overnight index swaps from 1.0 percent, to 0.5 percent. The accompanying statement said, 'The purpose of these actions is to ease strains in financial markets and thereby mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses and help foster economic activity'.
The aim is clear-to unclog sclerotic interbank lending markets, where an increasing number of banks have been excluded from access to liquidity, or at least to reduce the price they have to pay for same.
Combined with this week's failure by the European Central Bank, (ECB), to completely sterilize its purchases of stricken peripheral bonds, this will increase speculation that the next official step may be for the ECB to bow to pressure to become the lender of last resort to Eurozone
states; risk-on for now.
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US labour market surges as ADP reports +200,000 jobs in Nov.
200,000 print in the ADP since March became a reality today as payroll data processing company ADP released its November report, which shows that payrolls rose by 206,000 in the private sector. And to add to the positive vibes the October number was revised up by 20,000 to 130,000.
Digging deeper, the gains in November came primarily from the small and medium-sized companies which added 110,000 and 84,000, respectively, while the large companies added 12,000. Looking at various sectors service-producing jobs added 178,000 while manufacturing and goods-producing added 7,000 and 28,000, respectively; both the highest readings since June.
Digging deeper, the gains in November came primarily from the small and medium-sized companies which added 110,000 and 84,000, respectively, while the large companies added 12,000. Looking at various sectors service-producing jobs added 178,000 while manufacturing and goods-producing added 7,000 and 28,000, respectively; both the highest readings since June.
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